Apocalyptic Virus Or Not?

[LongTimeLu]

I saw an interview with an Aussie tutor in Wuhan. He was saying 'yeah they shut down the subway, but it's just a nuisance. You news guys are going over the top'
They didn't ask him back for a second interview because it didn't fit their narrative.

Now they're telling us China is lying about the numbers.
Oh! And it spreads before you see symptoms so you don't know who is contagious.

Also Brexit'll tank the economy, the environment will explode and the sun'll go out.

[FrostyQN]

Originally Posted by Gemini37

Ah, nice... a Stephen King's The Stand reference.

It's the gift that keeps on giving every flu season.

You Tube

You Tube

50:02 will get you just before the quote starts...but don't worry, the Rat Man will forgive you THIS time!!! (With the new youtu.be shit, trying to nail a certain time down here is impossible)

[alexora]

I believe that the Coronavirus could turn out to be very serious indeed.

This from the BBC's Health and science correspondent:

Coronavirus: How worried should we be?

A virus - previously unknown to science - is causing severe lung disease in China and has also been detected in other countries.

More than 100 people are known to have died from the virus, which appeared in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December.

There are already more than 4,500 confirmed cases, and experts expect the number will keep rising.

A new virus arriving on the scene, leaving patients with pneumonia, is always a worry and health officials around the world are on high alert.

Can this outbreak be contained or is this something far more dangerous?

What is this virus?

Officials in China have confirmed the cases are caused by a coronavirus.

These are a broad family of viruses, but only six (the new one would make it seven) are known to infect people.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars), which is caused by a coronavirus, killed 774 of the 8,098 people infected in an outbreak that started in China in 2002.

"There is a strong memory of Sars, that's where a lot of fear comes from, but we're a lot more prepared to deal with those types of diseases," says Dr Josie Golding, from the Wellcome Trust.

How severe are the symptoms?

It seems to start with a fever, followed by a dry cough and then, after a week, leads to shortness of breath and some patients needing hospital treatment.

Around one-in-four cases are thought to be severe.

Notably, the infection rarely seems to cause a runny nose or sneezing.

The coronavirus family itself can cause symptoms ranging from a mild cold all the way through to death.

"When we see a new coronavirus, we want to know how severe are the symptoms. This is more than cold-like symptoms and that is a concern but it is not as severe as Sars," says Prof Mark Woolhouse, from the University of Edinburgh.

The World Health Organization (WHO) says it is an emergency in China, but decided not to declare an international public health emergency - as it did with swine flu and Ebola.

How deadly is it?

More than 100 people are known to have died from the virus - but while the ratio of deaths to known cases appears low, the figures are unreliable.

But the infection seems to take a while to kill, so more of those patients may yet die.

And it is unclear how many unreported cases there are.

Where has it come from?

New viruses are detected all the time.

They jump from one species, where they went unnoticed, into humans.

"If we think about outbreaks in the past, if it is a new coronavirus, it will have come from an animal reservoir," says Prof Jonathan Ball, a virologist at the University of Nottingham.

Many of the early coronavirus cases were linked to the South China Seafood Wholesale Market, in Wuhan.

But the earliest documented case, which has been traced back to 1 December, had no connection to the market.

Sars started off in bats and then infected the civet cat, which in turn passed it on to humans.

And Middle East respiratory syndrome (Mers), which has killed 858 out of the 2,494 recorded cases since it emerged in 2012, regularly makes the jump from the dromedary camel.

Which animal?

Once the animal reservoir (where the virus normally camps out) is detected, then the problem becomes much easier to deal with.

While some sea-going mammals can carry coronaviruses (such as the Beluga whale), the South China Seafood Wholesale Market also has live wild animals, including chickens, bats, rabbits, snakes, which are more likely to be the source.

Researchers say the new virus is closely related to one found in Chinese horseshoe bats.

However, this does not mean wild bats are the source of the outbreak - they could have passed the virus onto another species sold at the market.

Why China?

Prof Woolhouse says it is because of the size and density of the population and close contact with animals harbouring viruses.

"No-one is surprised the next outbreak is in China or that part of the world," he says.

How easily does it spread between people?

At the beginning of the outbreak, the Chinese authorities said the virus was not spreading between people - but now, such cases have been identified.

Scientists have now revealed each infected person is passing the virus on to between 1.4 and 2.5 people.

This figure is called the virus' basic reproduction number - anything higher than 1 means it's self-sustaining.

We now know this is not a virus that will burn out on its own and disappear.

Only the decisions being made in China - including shutting down cities - can stop it spreading.

While those figures are early estimates, they put coronavirus in roughly the same league as Sars.

When are people infectious?

Chinese scientists say people are infectious even before their symptoms appear.

The time between infection and symptoms - known as the incubation period - lasts between one and 14 days.

Sars and Ebola are contagious only when symptoms appear. Such outbreaks are relatively easy to stop: identify and isolate people who are sick and monitor anyone they came into contact with.

Flu, however, is the most famous example of a virus that you spread before you even know you're ill.

Prof Wendy Barclay from the department of infectious disease at Imperial College London said it was common for lung infectious to spread without symptoms.

The virus is "carried into the air during normal breathing and talking by the infected person," she explained.

"It would not be too surprising if the new coronavirus also does this."

We are not at the stage where people are saying this could be a global pandemic like swine flu.

But the problems of stopping such "symptomless spreaders" will make the job of the Chinese authorities much harder.

What is not known is how infectious people are during the incubation period.

How fast is it spreading?

It might appear as though cases have soared. But this is somewhat misleading.

Many of these seeming new cases will have come to light as a result of China improving its ability to find infected people.

There is actually very little information on the "growth rate" of the outbreak.

But experts say the number of people becoming sick is likely to be far higher than the reported figures.

A report last week by the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London said: "It is likely that the Wuhan outbreak of a novel coronavirus has caused substantially more cases of moderate or severe respiratory illness than currently reported."

And over the weekend, researchers at Lancaster University estimated the number of cases suggesting 11,000 have been infected this year. If true, that would be more than Sars.

Could the virus mutate?

Yes, you would expect viruses to mutate and evolve all the time. But what this means is harder to tell.

China's National Health Commission has warned the coronavirus's transmission ability is getting stronger, but they were unclear on the risks posed by mutations of the virus.

This is something scientists will be watching closely.

How can the virus be stopped?

We now know the virus will not stop on its own; only the actions of the Chinese authorities can bring this epidemic to an end.

There is also no vaccine to give people immunity to the virus.

The only option is to prevent people who have become infected from spreading the virus to others.

That means:

Limiting people's movement

Encouraging hand-washing

Treating patients in isolation with healthcare workers wearing protective gear

A massive feat of detective work will also be needed to identify people whom patients have come into contact with to see if they have the virus.

How have Chinese authorities responded so far?

China has done something unprecedented anywhere in the world - by effectively putting Wuhan into quarantine.

Travel restrictions have also been imposed on a dozen other cities with 36 million people affected.

Some mass gatherings have been banned and tourists sites, including part of the Great Wall, have been closed.

And a ban on the sale of wildlife, a possible source of the infection, has been imposed.

Wuhan - the centre of the outbreak - is building a two new hospitals with beds for a total of 2,300 people.

How is the world responding?

Most Asian countries have stepped up screenings of travellers from Wuhan and the WHO has warned hospitals worldwide a wider outbreak is possible.

Singapore and Hong Kong have been screening air passengers from Wuhan and authorities in the US and the UK have announced similar measures.

However, questions remain about the effectiveness of such measures.

If it takes up to two weeks for symptoms to appear, then someone could easily be halfway round the world and have passed through any screening checks before starting to feel ill.

How worried are the experts?

Dr Golding says: "At the moment, until we have more information, it's really hard to know how worried we should be.

"Until we have confirmation of the source, that's always going to make us uneasy."

Prof Ball says: "We should be worried about any virus that explores humans for the first time, because it's overcome the first major barrier.

"Once inside a [human] cell and replicating, it can start to generate mutations that could allow it to spread more efficiently and become more dangerous.

"You don't want to give the virus the opportunity."

Are there any vaccines or treatments?

No.

However, the work to develop them is already under way. It is hoped that research into developing a vaccine for Mers, which is also a coronavirus, will make this an easier job.

And hospitals are testing anti-viral drugs to see if they have an impact.

A combination of two drugs - lopinavir and ritonavir - was successful in the Sars epidemic and are being tested in China.

Source:

http://bbc.co.uk/news/health-51048366

[carolina73]

I saw a doctor on TV going on and on about the corona virus. Then the news girl asked how mush more serious was this than the flu. The doctor looked at her and said "this is not as serious as the flu"...

BTW I am sure I had the Corona Premiere Virus last Saturday morning. I was okay by lunch. I think I got it from the limes.

[Reclaimed_A1]

It's not an Apocalyptic Virus. It's being under reported and the World Health Organization is dragging it's feet about how severe it actually is. (Everyone is so scared of Chinese retaliation, well except us America). China is lying about the number of cases but the world will not end.

And it's amazing how no cases are being reported in Spain, the UK, Germany, The Netherlands, Italy. Clearly that's bullshit. I've been to all those places and there are thousands of Chinese Tourists there on vacation all the time. It's very easy to say well someone has the flu, not the Corona Virus since their symptoms mimic the flu right? I mean we don't want to disturb tourism and the economies of those countries do we?

[Zytin]

Now I am totally in the mood for World War Z! Seriously, I got my copy off the shelf and I am gonna watch it this afternoon; haven't seen it in years. Watched The Stand a couple months ago when it was released on BluRay.

This might be a problem for China. It won't be a problem for developed countries.

[alexora]

Originally Posted by alex1

And it's amazing how no cases are being reported in Spain, the UK, Germany, The Netherlands, Italy.

Latest news:

Germany confirms first human coronavirus transmission in Europe

Man infected by colleague who appeared not to have symptoms when virus was transmitted

The first human to human transmission of the Wuhan coronavirus in Europe has been reported in Germany, where a man was infected by a colleague who had been in China, fuelling anxieties about the potential ease of international spread.

Experts said it was of particular concern that the Chinese woman who originally had the virus apparently had no symptoms when she transmitted it to her colleague. There have been warnings from inside China that people may be infectious before they start to feel ill.

So far there has been very limited spread from China. A handful of countries have reported cases including France, which has three, and the United States, which had five. This is the first reported European case of transmission from one person to another but it has also occurred in Japan, Vietnam and Taiwan.

Confirmed cases of coronavirus

The World Health Organization said on Tuesday that China had agreed the WHO could send international experts “as soon as possible” after talks in Beijing. It said a better understanding of the virus’ ability to spread from person to person was urgently needed to advise other countries and guide the global response to the outbreak.

Read the full report here:

http://theguardian.com/science/2020/jan/28/germany-confirms-first-human-coronavirus-transmission-in-europe

[Soon2BFit]

Man alexora you just had to go and ruin the guys day now

[SynchroDub]

That's exactly what happens when you play too much Resident Evil and you forget to turn off your console.....you release T-Virus, G-Virus and Las Plagas particles everywhere. Not to mention that you start to become paranoid about Albert Wesker and the secrets of Umbrella.
No, seriously, media guys. Have a Xanax and some Wine and stop spreading bullshit and fake statistics, please.
This ain't no Ebola, HIV or a nerve gas/nuclear contamination.

[alexora]

Originally Posted by SynchroDub

No, seriously, media guys. Have a Xanax and some Wine and stop spreading bullshit and fake statistics, please.

The "media guys" are just reporting on what scientist are saying: they're not making shit up.

In other latest news:

Coronavirus: Foreign Office warns against
'all but essential travel' to China

The Foreign Office is warning Britons not to travel to mainland China, unless their journey is essential.

Its updated advice comes amid the coronavirus outbreak, which has caused more than 100 deaths, spread across China and to at least 16 other countries.

There have been no confirmed cases in the UK so far.

The FCO also advises against all travel to Hubei Province, saying anyone there who can leave should do so.

In its China advice on the gov.uk website, it said: "The FCO advise against all but essential travel to the rest of mainland China (not including Hong Kong and Macao).

"The Chinese government continue to impose further restrictions on movement within China in response to the coronavirus outbreak.

"It may become harder over the coming weeks for those who wish to leave China to do so. If you feel that you may want to leave China soon, you should consider making plans to do so before any further restrictions may be imposed."

So far 97 people in the UK have tested negative for coronavirus, the Department of Health said, and there have been no positive results.

The FCO is arranging to evacuate Britons from Hubei province, where the virus was first detected.

Germany and Japan have confirmed they have had cases of the virus involving people who had not travelled to China, but caught it from someone who had. This had previously only happened in Vietnam.

Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said the government was "working urgently to finalise arrangements for an assisted departure from Hubei Province for British nationals this week, and are in contact with people in Hubei to ensure they register their interest and that we can keep them updated".

He added: "The UK continues to be guided by the latest medical advice about the coronavirus outbreak. The safety and security of British people will always be our top priority."

Britons have also been advised by the FCO to "comply with any additional screening measures put in place by the local authorities".

It is thought people could be flown home as early as Thursday, with one teacher in Wuhan, the capital city of the province, telling the Press Association news agency that UK citizens were being given details of forthcoming flights.

Those in Wuhan and the surrounding areas have been urged to contact the British consulate before 11:00 local time on Wednesday if they wish to leave. Transport may come quickly and suddenly, officials have warned.

Up to 300 British people are thought to be in the city of Wuhan and in the wider Hubei province, which is now under strict travel restrictions. Wearing masks in public is now mandatory in some Chinese cities.

Britons in parts of China affected by the virus have criticised the UK government for its lack of support over their return home.

Some in the Wuhan area said they had been given little information, compared to those from other countries. The US and Japan have been sending planes to Wuhan to evacuate their citizens.

'Cities could be closed at short notice'

Travel journalist Simon Calder told BBC News the FCO's change of advice was "extremely significant".

"My estimate is that there are around 10,000 holidaymakers in China at the moment and many thousands more who are on business or living as ex-patriots," he said.

"The Foreign Office is being clear that it is not overly concerned with people who are there at the moment, it is more that they want to manage the scale of any possible problems.

"At the moment people can fly freely in and out of Beijing and Shanghai - the Foreign Office appears to be concerned that cities like that could be closed at short notice."

Mr Calder said airlines flying from the UK to China "have all said that they will provide refunds and anyone booked on a package holiday due to depart imminently will be entitled to a full refund".

Those with packages booked to depart beyond the next week or so may be told to wait and see by their travel company, in case the FCO changes its advice.

"Anyone who travels to China against the Foreign Office advice risks invalidating their insurance," he added.

Tests on people who have returned to the UK from the area are continuing.

One man currently being tested was filmed as he left home in Harborne, Birmingham, on Monday, on his way to hospital.

A video posted on Twitter by a neighbour showed him being escorted to an ambulance by a medic wearing a protective suit.

Source:

http://bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51288672