Apocalyptic Virus Or Not?

[HiTrack99]

It's terrible seeing people not use vaccination centres, and in France one was even burnt down!

[SynchroDub]

Originally Posted by Bounder

I hear you. I am a Grumpy Old Man too - fact is, I hated nightclubs even when I was young enough to frequent them, and have always detested New Years Eve. There's something about compulsory fun which brings out the miserable bastard in me, which is never far below the surface anyway. I saw the opening of the UK nightclub venues yesterday and just shook my head. It's difficult for me to say anything else about that without transgressing the no-politics rule.

Where I'd like to be able to go again is the theatre, and to classical orchestras, and even to church once in a blue moon. I completely endorse the principle of a vaccine passport, because I resent it that "vaccine hesitant" people (aka "selfish people") can jeopardise my safety. They want to take a free ride on the herd immunity created by the sacrifices and risks accepted by the rest of us, and I say they can Foxtrot Oscar. I'd exclude them from aeroplanes, ships and public transport as well.

I'm in my mid-30s, but yeah.
I never liked pubs and all that. There was a time I used to drink Jack Daniels and other liquors on the weekends, but that was so long ago.
I was, however, a very heavy smoker for a long time, almost like a junkie: cigs, cigars, rolled tobacco. Whatever it had Tobacco in it, I would smoke almost anything. I cut that out for good, too.
So, I don't miss alcohol or Tobacco.

What I always liked, though, were Summer Rock Festivals. I really missed them, this year.
I would've liked to see my favorite bands playing. But, all it's postponed to 2022. And even the Olympics, probably, might get postponed, seeing how the contagions rates are rising again, everywhere, including Tokyo.
We got lucky with the UEFA Euro games. Although, we're paying the price now, here in Italy, for all those who gathered in squares to see Italy play on the big screen, without masks and social distancing.

I still haven't got any vaccine, yet, as they constantly direct me to a hub that's 100km away from where I am (it's the system that sucks).
I'm eagerly waiting for the government to give to GP doctors the license and the vaccines, so I can get it from my doctor, at my own convenience.
But I always respected the common rules of wearing a mask, as well keeping distance when necessary, even when walking out the dog around.

For the rest, we already got a decline of -50% in hotels and BBs reservations.
Even those who are vaccinated prefer to stay where they are.
It's definitely not a very good time to travel or gather around, vaccinated or not.

[alexora]

Meanwhile, in Vietnam, NIKE's new slogan is 'Just (don't) Do It'...

Nike trainer output at key factory
hit by Covid outbreak

Production at some of Nike's largest plants in Vietnam has been disrupted as Covid has spread through factories.

The company refused to comment on whether store supplies would see shortages as a result of the outbreak.

About half of Nike's shoes were manufactured in Vietnam in the last financial year, so this will mean challenges for its supply chain.

Vietnam has seen a record rise in cases since last April with many infection clusters in its industrial provinces.

Apple, Samsung and Puma could also be affected by the surge in cases recorded at suppliers' factories in the country.

"The health and safety of our teammates, as well as that of our suppliers, remains our top priority," a statement from Nike said.

Nike said the company would continue to work with its suppliers to support them in response to the rise in Covid cases.

"We are confident in Nike's ability to navigate these near-term dynamics, and we remain prudent in our planning," the statement added.

One of Nike's worst affected suppliers in the region, Pou Chen Corp, also makes footwear for Adidas and is the world's largest manufacturer of branded trainers.

It suspended operations at its plant in Ho Chi Minh City on Wednesday due to the outbreak in infections.

In a statement, the country's health ministry said Pou Chen's Pouyuen Vietnam factory would be suspended for 10 days.

The factory is Ho Chi Minh City's largest employer, with a total of 56,000 workers. But it was unable to stay open and arrange for its workers to sleep at the factory, as was required by authorities to limit the spread of infections, according to the health ministry.

Nike employs over 450,000 workers in the country, 80 % of whom are women.

Similar challenges could also be faced for Puma, whose footwear is also manufactured in the country. Apple and Samsung also have large suppliers in the worst affected factories in the northern region of Vietnam.

Apple did not give a comment on whether the outbreak will mean item shortages in shops, while Adidas, Puma and Samsung did not immediately respond to the BBC's request for comment.

Samsung makes around half of its phones in Vietnam and has had to stop work at three factories in Ho Chin Minh City. According to the health ministry's website, Samsung Electronics is planning for workers to sleep at the plants and has currently cut its staffing to 3,000 from 7,000.

Many firms had begun to move their production from China to countries such as Vietnam as a result of challenges from tariffs over the course of the pandemic.

Dr Patsy Perry, senior lecturer in fashion business at Manchester Metropolitan University, told the BBC these problems are compounded by the Covid-related surge in demand for athletic wear as people have been spending more time at home.

"This shows the risk of overreliance on a particular sourcing region," she explained.

Bu, Dr Perry said that Nike's manufacturing map means it could potentially move production the other countries, depending how agile its supply chain relationships are.

"Costs might increase in the short term if it needs to move production into more expensive areas, but it's more important to service demand than risking a stock-out situation," Dr Perry added.

Vietnam has vaccinated around 4% of its 100 million population. Its capital Hanoi has stopped all non-essential services due to new clusters of Covid infections and on Sunday urged its citizens to stay at home.

The government added factory workers to its vaccine priority list after the rise in cases in late April forced manufacturing areas in the north of the country to close.

Source:

http://bbc.co.uk/news/business-57902093

[fbplanet]

Originally Posted by superbear2000

These are some of the things I would like to discuss. First off the reason a vaccine was developed so quickly...

Second point the labs all got a vaccine within such a short time frame...

That is what I said too.
But Russia, the UK and others working together, and then at the last moment, develop their own vaccine and brand.

And their are 2 main types of vaccine: based on mRNA or not.
So maybe not everybody was working with everybody. Or maybe they did, and worked on different solutions at once.

Should I interpret this as: we start together, and when the finish line is in sight, we split up?

Still...

Originally Posted by superbear2000

Third point, you state that vaccinated people can still incubate the virus and spread it without knowing it. This is true, however...

That is what I said too.
And I understand that a person who is vaccinated, might be less contagious.
BUT
A person who is vaccinated, can be of greater danger than somebody who is not.

The former has higher probability not to show symptoms, thus will not stand out in a crowd.
+ the former has free movement because of the ID.

For the latter, it is the opposite: will most likely show symptoms, will be noticed, and tested = stop to further spreading.
The lack of an ID = no free movement = test anyhow = stop to further spreading.

What is your opnion on this?

Originally Posted by superbear2000

Next point, negative test = free movement. The problem here is sometimes during the incubation period, tests do not pick it up.

I have no knowlegde whether a vaccine has influence on the incubation period, or not.
My guess: no influence.

Originally Posted by superbear2000

A vaccinated person has a layer of protection in that they could already be fighting the virus and have a shorter time where the virus can be shred whereas an unvaccinated person would be guaranteed to spread the virus and for a longer period of time.

True, but see above.
The ID gives a vaccinated person free movement.

A discussion about the average time or the likelyhood that an unvaccinated person will remain unnoticed, is almost speculation.
BUT
I take into account that an unvaccinated person, and not being stopped because his free movement that has been taken away, will take responsibility of going to a doctor by himself.

And we have already seen the behaviour of vaccinated people: tennis, soccer/football, party in Spain...

Now: we can start blaming each other, set up a complex calculation, statistics...
or
Try the simple situation below.

A fictitious example to demonstrate.
1 vaccinated person
1 unvaccinated person
Both persons have the same immune system, are equal responsible, same body... to say twins (you understand what I mean).
Both are infected, and contagious, but yet feel strong and fit enough. In other words: they are unaware.
Both are going to travel by plane.
Who is more likely to continue without issues?
Who is more likely to be identified and stopped?
Why? Because of the only difference: the ID that gives/takes free movement.

As I see it, the ID is more an issue, than the (intended) solution.
Even worse: the ID has the opposite effect.

A further fictitious example to demonstrate.
All unvaccinated people are robbed of their free movement, and thus in quarantine at home. Food... is provided to them.
All vaccinated people, have free movement because of the ID.
Who will infect who?

On top of that: suppose that r still rises because of yet a new and more contagious variant.
Mutation and spreading thanks to the vaccinated people with free movement because of the ID.

These 2 examples demonstrate the underlying principle that an ID, linked to free movement, is not the (intended) solution.


Negative test = free movement.
No ID needed.

Originally Posted by superbear2000

Next point, can you please link a source to the journalist being forbidden to print the story about Pfizer? I can find many articles about possible links between the vaccine and thrombosis but can't find anything about somebody being forbidden to print a article about it.

Absolutely NOT.
It is a local paper, but yet a major one.
And the story is stopped from being printed... So no proof of any kind.
Further: I heard it via a source that I can trust. Meaning: that person has no reason to lie to me.
Furthermore: even if I knew, I wouldn't say. I'm not going to expose this journalist.
Finally, I said: "I think Pfizer". I need to get this verified if I can speak to this person once again, alone.

Originally Posted by superbear2000

And finally here is another nugget of information for your thoughts. In the US the CDC has reported that in the last few weeks almost 99% of new covid cases admitted to hospitals were unvaccinated. Of those that died over 99% of them were unvaccinated.

Of course. I watch CNN too.
And furthermore: it is only the logical and mathematical result.
but
A vaccinated person, still can get the infected.
Heard today on the news of neighbouring country, that 10% of the new infections - with the delta variant -, are people who are already vaccinated.
So this % still depends on many factors.



What questions me, and demonstrates maybe my fictitious example above: how come the figures of infections are rising again?
Who is responsible for the spreading?
(not to blame as I said before, only the fact that an ID linked to free movement, is of no good)



Other:
- Biden himself: the only pandemic, are those who are unvaccinated.
-> Say what?!?!
- demonstrations in France against the - soon to be mandatory? - vaccine and ID - and yet other places with similar protests.



footnote, maybe not worthy to mention.
I can't find the story, but what was the subject in the show of Jake Tapper last Friday on CNN? Something about senior officials of the Biden administration and Covid (not) being a leak from a lab in China.
.

[superbear2000]

Originally Posted by fbplanet

That is what I said too.
But Russia, the UK and others working together, and then at the last moment, develop their own vaccine and brand.

And their are 2 main types of vaccine: based on mRNA or not.
So maybe not everybody was working with everybody. Or maybe they did, and worked on different solutions at once.

Should I interpret this as: we start together, and when the finish line is in sight, we split up?

Still...


That is what I said too.
And I understand that a person who is vaccinated, might be less contagious.
BUT
A person who is vaccinated, can be of greater danger than somebody who is not.

The former has higher probability not to show symptoms, thus will not stand out in a crowd.
+ the former has free movement because of the ID.

For the latter, it is the opposite: will most likely show symptoms, will be noticed, and tested = stop to further spreading.
The lack of an ID = no free movement = test anyhow = stop to further spreading.

What is your opnion on this?


I have no knowlegde whether a vaccine has influence on the incubation period, or not.
My guess: no influence.


True, but see above.
The ID gives a vaccinated person free movement.

A discussion about the average time or the likelyhood that an unvaccinated person will remain unnoticed, is almost speculation.
BUT
I take into account that an unvaccinated person, and not being stopped because his free movement that has been taken away, will take responsibility of going to a doctor by himself.

And we have already seen the behaviour of vaccinated people: tennis, soccer/football, party in Spain...

Now: we can start blaming each other, set up a complex calculation, statistics...
or
Try the simple situation below.

A fictitious example to demonstrate.
1 vaccinated person
1 unvaccinated person
Both persons have the same immune system, are equal responsible, same body... to say twins (you understand what I mean).
Both are infected, and contagious, but yet feel strong and fit enough. In other words: they are unaware.
Both are going to travel by plane.
Who is more likely to continue without issues?
Who is more likely to be identified and stopped?
Why? Because of the only difference: the ID that gives/takes free movement.

As I see it, the ID is more an issue, than the (intended) solution.
Even worse: the ID has the opposite effect.

A further fictitious example to demonstrate.
All unvaccinated people are robbed of their free movement, and thus in quarantine at home. Food... is provided to them.
All vaccinated people, have free movement because of the ID.
Who will infect who?

On top of that: suppose that r still rises because of yet a new and more contagious variant.
Mutation and spreading thanks to the vaccinated people with free movement because of the ID.

These 2 examples demonstrate the underlying principle that an ID, linked to free movement, is not the (intended) solution.


Negative test = free movement.
No ID needed.



Absolutely NOT.
It is a local paper, but yet a major one.
And the story is stopped from being printed... So no proof of any kind.
Further: I heard it via a source that I can trust. Meaning: that person has no reason to lie to me.
Furthermore: even if I knew, I wouldn't say. I'm not going to expose this journalist.
Finally, I said: "I think Pfizer". I need to get this verified if I can speak to this person once again, alone.


Of course. I watch CNN too.
And furthermore: it is only the logical and mathematical result.
but
A vaccinated person, still can get the infected.
Heard today on the news of neighbouring country, that 10% of the new infections - with the delta variant -, are people who are already vaccinated.
So this % still depends on many factors.



What questions me, and demonstrates maybe my fictitious example above: how come the figures of infections are rising again?
Who is responsible for the spreading?
(not to blame as I said before, only the fact that an ID linked to free movement, is of no good)



Other:
- Biden himself: the only pandemic, are those who are unvaccinated.
-> Say what?!?!
- demonstrations in France against the - soon to be mandatory? - vaccine and ID - and yet other places with similar protests.



footnote, maybe not worthy to mention.
I can't find the story, but what was the subject in the show of Jake Tapper last Friday on CNN? Something about senior officials of the Biden administration and Covid (not) being a leak from a lab in China.
.

Alright lets break this down. Your first claim that people work together then split up when the finish line was in sight. That is false. When I said they worked together I said it was through information gathering about the virus not about them working together in the same lab. It was crucial that the labs worked in different directions on different vaccines to maximize the chance of creating a successful vaccine. The fact that we got multiple vaccines with a high efficacy rate is testament to the value of information sharing.

Part 2 you say that a vaccinated person would be of a greater danger to a unvaccinated person. Of course the unvaccinated person faces greater dangers, this is because they are NOT VACCINATED and therefore do not have a layer of protection against the virus. Also the unvaccinated person does not face greater dangers from just vaccinated people but also from other unvaccinated people. This is something that is very important to consider.

Next we get to your examples. In your twins example, the question of who is more likely to be stopped depends on where they are trying to go to. Different countries have different rules and regulations for travel during the pandemic so I cannot answer that question. However I would assume that the vaccinated person would face less hurdles because they are vaccinated and pose less risk to others.

Next point you say unvaccinated people are being robbed of their movement but I ask you the question who is doing the robbing? They made a choice to not take the vaccine during a global pandemic so they have to live with their decision. The information about the pandemic and vaccines is freely available and if they make the choice to stay unvaccinated then it is by their choice that they are losing their movement so nobody is "robbing" them. The 1 exception is for the people that are allergic to the vaccine and for those people I feel genuinely sorry for and I hope that a vaccine is developed in the future that they are not allergic to.

Final part that I am going to discuss today is about your claim that vaccinated people are causing the mutation and spreading of new variants. Again this is just NOT true. The variants are emerging from countries that had/have low vaccination rates and are being spread because some countries had lax quarantine rules.

[Reclaimed08]

At my local food store the sign saying that masks are optional for vaccinated people has been taken down.

I'm definitely worried about the Delta variant and it being more transmissible than the other variants and all it takes is one more mutation for it to be more transmissible and more deadly!

I'm just saying that the pandemic isn't over no matter how much people want it to be.

Also has anyone else noticed how fucked up the world is at the moment? This isn't a political statement or anything it just feels and what I've observed that there's a lot of indecision, hesitation, frustration and fear when I've gone out.

Maybe it's just me and like everything else in this post all just my opinion; take it for a grain of salt.

[fbplanet]

Than how do you exlain that in the end, 4 different vaccines were available?

Everybody remains a risk to everybody else.

Twins example: they are at an airport.
Remember the first safety measures being taken such as temperature?
That is what I'm pointing at: a person with ID has free movement, and won't be subjected to a check. You disagree?

Again, the same issue: the restrictions of free movement if you have no ID.
Invented by the population? Since there are protests against it, I don't think so.
So who else is able to impose restrictions of free movement? Right: the government.

A summary.
Everybody remains a risk to everybody else. The ID with the restriction of free movement coming along with it, isn't going to change that.
Just remain vigilant, include everybody to be subjected to health checks (temperature), ID or not, vaccinated or not.
E.g.

Originally Posted by Zytin

As I have said I am vaccinated, and I haven't changed my behavior...

Negative test = free movement.
No ID needed.
.

[SynchroDub]

Originally Posted by RedMage

Also has anyone else noticed how fucked up the world is at the moment? This isn't a political statement or anything it just feels and what I've observed that there's a lot of indecision, hesitation, frustration and fear when I've gone out.

Maybe it's just me and like everything else in this post all just my opinion; take it for a grain of salt.

No. You're definitely not the only one who noticed that.
I see a lot of people insulting eachother on Social Media and on Youtube. Also, there a lot of "I'm X age, and I don't have any friends" Youtube vids popping up as well, being the "trend" of the moment. And most of my favorite Youtubers have stopped making new content as well.
Porn Torrents, even the popular ones, have seen much better times as well.
So, even the online world has suffered the effects of this pandemic, with the only exception of online stores, which they made a lot of money, since this pandemic started.

As far as other things goes, here, after 10PM, everyone is at their home, whether during more other "happy" times, people would've still been around, drinking cocktails, talking and just have fun.
People have just changed their habits, as well their outlook for the future, since this pandemic started.
Most everyone is just living day by day, now, without any plans or agenda.

It definitely feels like we're living in a post-apocalyptic world.

[superbear2000]

Originally Posted by fbplanet

Than how do you exlain that in the end, 4 different vaccines were available?

Everybody remains a risk to everybody else.

Twins example: they are at an airport.
Remember the first safety measures being taken such as temperature?
That is what I'm pointing at: a person with ID has free movement, and won't be subjected to a check. You disagree?

Again, the same issue: the restrictions of free movement if you have no ID.
Invented by the population? Since there are protests against it, I don't think so.
So who else is able to impose restrictions of free movement? Right: the government.

A summary.
Everybody remains a risk to everybody else. The ID with the restriction of free movement coming along with it, isn't going to change that.
Just remain vigilant, include everybody to be subjected to health checks (temperature), ID or not, vaccinated or not.
E.g.


Negative test = free movement.
No ID needed.
.

.....seriously sometimes I wonder if you are just trying to troll me. I literally said that different labs went in different directions but with the same information about the virus so that the chances of creating a vaccine is increased. This is the beauty of science you can use the same data with different approaches to reach the same destination.

And no everybody does not pose the same risk to everybody else. Vaccinated people pose less risk. This has been proven by the stats eg. most new recent covid cases are unvaccinated.

Seriously IDs are nothing new. We have IDs for so many things already eg. alcohol, cigarettes, passports to travel to another country, license to drive a vehicle. You have idiots that protest against those IDs as well but in the end they are accepted because they are required for the betterment of society.

And please stop spamming the Negative test = free movement slogan because it DOESN'T WORK. That's why some countries have quarantine requirements. Some people arrive in a country and test negative but after 3-4 days they test positive. So your Negative test = free movement idea is just going to help spread the virus.

[alexora]

This back in Feb 2020:

Originally Posted by alexora

Olympic games in doubt?

Tokyo Olympics chief says coronavirus could disrupt Games

Toshiro Muto ‘seriously worried’ about spread of virus with 170 days to go

A senior Olympic official in Japan has warned that the coronavirus outbreak could “throw cold water” on preparations for Tokyo 2020, although organisers insist that there are no plans to cancel the Games.

Toshiro Muto, the chief executive of the Tokyo Olympic organising committee, said he was concerned about the impact the spread of the virus was having in the run-up to the Olympics, which are due to open in 170 days.

Now, 19 months later, the XXXII Olympiad has finally started.

But how is it working under the shadow of Covid-19?

Tokyo Olympic Games: When are they
and will they go ahead despite Covid?

Final preparations are being made ahead of Friday's opening ceremony of the Tokyo Olympic Games.

Organisers have repeatedly insisted the competition can be held safely, despite calls for it to be cancelled over coronavirus concerns.

However, the head of the Tokyo 2020 organising committee has said he is monitoring infection numbers closely, and would hold "discussions" on the Games' future if necessary.

When are the Olympics and Paralympics?

Officially, the 2020 Summer Olympic Games take place between 23 July and 8 August, but the first events have already begun.

The Paralympic Games are due to run between 24 August and 5 September.

The Games were postponed from last year because of Covid.

The Olympics will feature 33 sports at 339 events across 42 venues. The Paralympics will feature 22 sports at 539 events across 21 venues.

Most events are in the Greater Tokyo area, although some football games and the marathon will take place in the northern city of Sapporo.

What's happening with Covid in Japan?

Overall the country has had relatively low case numbers, but a new wave of infections began in April.

As of 21 July, there were 848,222 confirmed cases and 15,062 deaths (compared with 5.5 million cases and 128,800 deaths in the UK).

Japan only began vaccinating people in February, later than most other developed nations. Only 22% of Japan's population of nearly 126 million people is fully vaccinated.

In Tokyo and Osaka, the two cities hit hardest by the recent surge, authorities hope over-65s will be fully vaccinated by the end of July.

Entry to Japan by foreigners from 159 countries - including the UK - is currently banned.

What Covid measures will be in place for visiting athletes?

International athletes and support staff are being tested before departure and on arrival in Japan.

UK athletes are required to stay within their Team GB bubble for at least the first three days in the country. They will be tested every day.

Athletes don't have to be vaccinated, though International Olympic Committee (IOC) officials expect around 80% will be.

A Chilean taekwondo athlete became the first Olympian to be ruled out of action on 21 July, after testing positive for Covid.

More than 70 people associated with the Games have so far tested positive for the virus, including British athlete Amber Hill who has withdrawn from the women's skeet competition.

Will there be any spectators?

Ministers decided to ban all spectators from the Olympics after a state of emergency was declared in Tokyo on 8 July.

The state of emergency was in response to a spike in Covid cases. It will stay in place until 22 August.

It was previously announced in March that international fans would not be able to attend the games, but up to 10,000 Japanese spectators were due to go.

A decision about whether Japanese spectators will be able to attend the Paralympics has not yet been made.

Tokyo 2020 President Seiko Hashimoto said she was "sorry to those who purchased tickets and everyone in local areas".

Could the Games be cancelled?

The contract between the IOC and the host city Tokyo suggests only the IOC can cancel the event.

The IOC is thought to make around 70% of its money from broadcast rights, and 18% from sponsorship.

It has repeatedly insisted the Games can go ahead safely, even under a state of emergency.

IOC president Thomas Bach said the thought of rescheduling the competition "caused sleepless nights", but insisted that the Games must go ahead "to give hope" for the future.

The head of the World Health Organization, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, also backed the competition, arguing it could show what can be done with the correct Covid safeguards.

But the head of the Tokyo 2020 organising committee Toshiro Muto has not ruled out cancelling the Olympic Games even at this late stage.

He said he would keep an eye on infection numbers and hold "discussions" if necessary.

If the Tokyo organisers were to cancel the contract, the risks and losses would probably fall on the Japanese side.

The budget for Tokyo 2020 was set at $12.6bn (£8.9bn), although it's been reported that the actual cost may be double that.

Do people in Japan want the Olympics?

Several towns set to host athletes reportedly pulled out earlier in the year because of fears about Covid and extra pressure on the healthcare system.

In May, a Japanese doctors' union said it was "impossible" to hold the Games given the pandemic.

A poll in May in the leading Asahi Shimbun newspaper suggested more than 80% of the population want them cancelled or postponed.

The paper also called for the event to be cancelled.

What have athletes' representatives said?

A number of bodies have expressed concern.

The World Players Association, representing 85,000 athletes in over 60 countries, said the IOC must do more to ensure athletes' safety - with stricter physical distancing and more rigorous testing.

Japanese athletes have largely kept a low profile, but the country's biggest sports star, tennis champion Naomi Osaka, previously said there should be a debate about whether the Games should go ahead.

Source:

http://bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-57240044