Apocalyptic Virus Or Not?

[LongTimeLu]

Originally Posted by chokes999

The Lowy Institute has now published a Country Performance Index providing a ranked comparison of the average performance over time of countries in managing the COVID-19 pandemic in the 36 weeks following their hundredth confirmed case of the virus. In total, 98 countries were evaluated, based on the availability of data across the six indicators used to construct this Index.

interactives. lowyinstitute.org/features/covid-performance/#rankings

Interesting link! Although something in my paranoid script settings F's the page

I think there is a lot of good analysis there and gives answers to why can't we be more like them

However, certain structural factors appear to be more closely associated with positive outcomes. For example, smaller countries (with populations of fewer than 10 million people) proved more agile than the majority of their larger counterparts in handling the health emergency for most of 2020.

On the other hand, levels of economic development or differences in political systems between countries had less of an impact on outcomes than often assumed or publicised. There may be some truth in the argument put forward by the American political scientist Francis Fukuyama that the dividing line in effective crisis response has not been regime type, “but whether citizens trust their leaders, and whether those leaders preside over a competent and effective state”. In general, countries with smaller populations, cohesive societies, and capable institutions have a comparative advantage in dealing with a global crisis such as a pandemic.

[LongTimeLu]

Also this commentary on 'effectiveness of the state' should make Britain angry that a report was hushed up and left on a shelf.

http://telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/rolls-royce-skoda-pandemic-has-exposed-britains-failed-regulatory/

Britain inherited from World War II a “command and control” state; a state that could govern. Whitehall was well-practised in strategic planning, good at the rapid and efficient mobilisation of resources and people, and it regularly took authoritative, direct action to meet society’s needs.

Today, after 40 years of reform, the “command and control” state has been replaced by a “regulatory state”. Decision-making has shifted from parliament to an archipelago of some 400 “arms-length” quangos, employing more than 278,000 people and costing £205 billion per year. Moreover, the state’s assets – its capacity to execute policy on its own accord – have been outsourced or rationalised.

As the regulatory state has grown, its ambition has shrunk. Politicians no longer offer grand visions of the future, just technocratic tweaks. Having dismantled or sold off the levers of power, they downplay public expectations, insisting there is no alternative.

The government’s panicked retreat into lockdown symbolises the failure of Britain’s regulatory state. In a desperate attempt to devise new policies and institutions, the government has had to rely on the very same management consultants and outsourcing firms that have eroded the state’s command and control capacities.

Britain’s pandemic preparations followed the same approach. The government’s latest strategy, issued in 2011, created no additional capacity to deal with an outbreak: no extra laboratories, no spare hospital beds, no new manufacturing centres to supply medical equipment, no new stockpiles of PPE. In true regulatory state style, it merely established bureaucratic guidelines that outsourced all the real work to local government, healthcare providers and others.

Years before Covid-19, the UK government tested the regulatory state to see if it could withstand a pandemic. It could not. In 2016, Exercise Cygnus “war gamed” a pandemic, finding that local agencies had not or could not develop the capacities and strategies needed. Capacity in health and social care was rapidly overwhelmed in the simulation, with participants forced to ration treatment, discharge patients into care homes, dig mass graves, and turn desperately to the voluntary sector and armed forces.

However, the report was stamped “official – sensitive” and put on a shelf to rot.

When Covid-19 finally hit, many were baffled by the government’s initially low-key, “business-as-usual” response, blaming Boris Johnson’s indecisiveness or the idiosyncratic views of advisors. In fact, ministers were just following the agreed playbook and the diminished ambitions of Britain’s regulatory state.

The 2011 pandemic strategy stipulated it would “not be possible to halt the spread of a new pandemic… and it would be a waste of public health resources and capacity to attempt to do so”. Instead, the strategy prioritised “business as usual”, anticipating healthcare rationing and 210,000 to 315,000 excess deaths over a fifteen-week period.

[Reclaimed_A1]

Coronavirus: Germany recommends AstraZeneca vaccine for under-65s only
Germany has said there was a lack of data regarding the effectiveness of the AstraZeneca vaccine for older people.

[LongTimeLu]

A worrying snippet from Reuters:

After developing COVID-19 vaccines at record speed, drugmakers are already facing variants of the rapidly evolving coronavirus that may render them ineffective, a challenge that will require months of research and a massive financial investment, according to disease experts.

A global surveillance network to assess emerging variants must be built. Scientists need to establish what level of antibodies will be required to protect people from COVID-19 and determine when vaccines need to be altered. And regulators must convey what is needed to demonstrate updated vaccines are still safe and effective.

Also ...

BRASILIA (Reuters) - Researchers in southern Brazil said they have discovered patients infected with two different strains of the new coronavirus simultaneously, reflecting concerns about the growing number of variants in the country.

The patients, both in their 30s, were infected in late November with the P.2 variant of coronavirus identified in Rio, also known as the B.1.1.28 lineage, and simultaneously tested positive for a second variant of the virus.

Their symptoms were reportedly mild, with a dry cough in one case, and coughing, sore throat and headache in the second. They did not require hospitalization.

The cases underscore how many variants could already be circulating in Brazil and raise concerns among scientists that the co-existence of two strains in the same body could speed up mutations of new variants of coronavirus.

[LongTimeLu]

Meanwhile from Sep 10 2020 in the forward planning dept ...

Are We Facing a Syringe Shortage?

http://labmate-online.com/news/laboratory-products/3/breaking-news/are-we-facing-a-syringe-shortage/53163

While there’s been plenty of talk surrounding a shortage of masks and PPE during the COVID-19 pandemic, health experts are warning countries could soon experience a shortage of syringes. The United States currently manufactures around 663 million syringes a year, though the federal government says an additional 850 million may be required is a vaccine is approved by winter 2020. If the nation can’t manufacture the additional syringes it could slow the rollout of a COVID-19 vaccine and hinder the country’s attempts to contain the virus.

Experts advise countries to plan and stockpile

The race to find a vaccine has been fierce, with some experts predicting potential shots could receive emergency approval by the end of the year. While this would be a major breakthrough for public health, it leaves the United States with an incredibly short window to scale up syringe manufacturing and increase supplies. To meet demand, US manufacturers would need to boost production by 50%. Experts are encouraging other countries to do the same, advising governments to plan and stockpile.

And from Reuters ...

"Russian roulette" in Europe as needle shortages hamper COVID-19 shots

http://reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-vaccines-needles-idUSL8N2K02UO

PARIS/BERLIN (Reuters) - Laurent Fignon, a geriatric doctor in the south of France, is having to improvise as he gives shots of the COVID-19 vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech to care home residents and health staff because supplies of the right needles and syringes are short.

Getting the full six doses from vials of the Pfizer/BioNTech shot – as allowed this month by the European Union's health regulator – requires needles that are both thin enough to minimize waste and long enough to deliver the jab, as required, into the recipient's shoulder muscle.

Fignon's hospital in the Mediterranean resort of Cannes was sent needles from the French public health authority that were too short, he said, forcing it to hunt locally for supplies. Other nearby hospitals got the right needles and were generous enough to share some.

"To us, it looks like Russian roulette," Fignon told Reuters. "You do not know what you will be getting."

Switzerland had placed orders for so-called “shot utensils” to deliver five doses per vial. With six now allowed, it is in talks with Pfizer to supply equipment needed to draw that number of doses, the Federal Office of Public Health said.

In Germany, vaccine distribution is handled by the central government but its 16 federal states are responsible for obtaining the needles and syringes needed to inject them - with mixed results.

German medical technology industry association BVMed said there were no production bottlenecks and that supplies of syringes and needles were adequate. But muddled orders were complicating distribution, it added, calling for better coordination.

[LongTimeLu]

Perth in lockdown, ending Australia's two-week run without COVID-19

http://reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-australia/perth-in-lockdown-ending-australias-two-week-run-without-covid-19-idUSKBN2A001R

The Australian city of Perth was ordered into lockdown on Sunday after a security guard working in hotel quarantine tested positive for COVID-19, ending the country’s longest coronavirus-free run.

The vast, largely isolated state has been known in Australia for a hardline COVID-19 response that included keeping its border closed to the rest of the country until recently when it reopened to some regions.

The security guard, aged in his 20s, was working at a hotel where four people in quarantine had active cases of the virus, including with highly contagious strains that have been linked to Britain and South Africa, the health authorities said.

The lockdown affected four-fifths of the population of Australia’s geographically biggest state, and the rest were asked not to travel. People from other states, only some of whom were recently allowed back into the state, were again asked to stay away.

[Reclaimed_A1]

OJ Simpson that murdering Bastard got the Covid vaccine yet I know plenty of people in need of it here (Many are elderly with massive health problems) and they still can't get it) WTF

[alexora]

Get well soon, Sir Tom!

Captain Sir Thomas Moore (born 30 April 1920), popularly known as "Captain Tom", is a former British Army officer and centenarian, known for his achievements raising money for charity in the run-up to his 100th birthday during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Moore served in India, the Burma campaign during the Second World War, and later became an instructor in armoured warfare. After the war, he worked as managing director of a concrete company and was an avid motorcycle racer.

On 6 April 2020, at the age of 99, he began to walk round his garden in aid of NHS Charities Together, with the goal of raising £1,000 by his hundredth birthday. In the 24-day course of his fundraising he made many media appearances and became a popular household name in the United Kingdom, earning a number of accolades and attracting over 1.5 million individual donations. In recognition of his efforts, he received the BBC Sports Personality of the Year Helen Rollason Award at the 2020 ceremony. He performed in a cover version of the song "You'll Never Walk Alone" sung by Michael Ball, with proceeds going to the same charity. The single topped the UK music charts, making him the oldest person to achieve a UK number one.

On the morning of his hundredth birthday the total raised by his walk passed £30 million, and by the time the campaign closed at the end of that day had increased to over £32.79 million (worth almost £39 million with expected tax rebates). His birthday was marked in a number of ways, including flypasts by the Royal Air Force and the British Army. He received over 150,000 cards, and was appointed as honorary colonel of the Army Foundation College. On 17 July 2020, he was invested as a Knight Bachelor at Windsor Castle.

In January 2021 Moore was hospitalised after testing positive with COVID-19.

Captain Tom in 1940:



And the moment he became Sir Tom in 2020:

[naturals]

So supposing you get vaccinated. What exactly can you do now? If you're still encouraged to stay home and avoid seeing family this is basically no different than without vaccination as far as resuming life pre-Wuhan virus.

[LongTimeLu]

Originally Posted by naturals

So supposing you get vaccinated. What exactly can you do now? If you're still encouraged to stay home and avoid seeing family this is basically no different than without vaccination as far as resuming life pre-Wuhan virus.

News in from Israel:

Israel's vaccine rollout linked to infection fall

http://bbc.co.uk/news/health-55706855

Israel's vaccination programme is showing signs of working to drive down infections and illness in the over-60s.

The fall appears to be most pronounced in older people and areas furthest ahead in their immunisation efforts.

This suggests it is the vaccine, and not just the country's current lockdown, taking effect.

Israel has consistently given people their first and second doses no more than three weeks apart, but the first dose isn't expected to provide protection for at least two weeks.

So it is not possible by looking at this data to untangle the impact of the second dose from the first dose starting to kick in.

The first dose takes longer to show any effect as it primes the immune system to start recognising and fighting off the virus.