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Roger Allott · 14th June 2024, 17:46

I'm rather amazed to find that there's no thread for the Euro 2024 tournament starting tonight with Germany v Scotland.

I've analysed the betting markets on Betfair and compared their implied probabilities with the pure data-driven Opta probabilities for who will win.

Some differences are quite interesting, as they may hint at where there's value to be found for those wanting a flutter.

The most out-of-whack results are the real minnows, as any decent statistician would predict. But Scotland are ranked 15th of the 24 partaking countries yet gamblers have been strangely 64.29% more pessimistic about their chances. Gambling on Scotland winning the tournament would probably be a bit dumb, but popping some dosh on them getting to the knockout stage or even the QFs is probably worth a punt.

At the other end, Portugal and Germany have been backed by punters more than Opta thinks is prudent. So, laying a bet on them NOT winning the tournament would be best value (at the time of writing).

Favourites England & France seem to be priced about right if we trust Opta, but elsewhere there seems to be value in backing Poland, Turkey, Denmark & Netherlands to succeed, or Croatia & Spain to NOT succeed.

.

RagnarokRL · 15th June 2024, 01:27

The betting on Portugal, Spain and Croatia are probably due to how good they were two, four and six years ago as opposed to now. Germany haven't been good for a while and playing at home may get them out of their group but I doubt they'll accomplish much beyond that. It wasn't German players that got Munich and Dortmund deep in the Champions League.

I'm cheering for England's success and France's failure as I loathe Mbappe.

Rocket_750 · 15th June 2024, 15:48

I am for Germany

dudeperfec · 16th June 2024, 02:23

Idk if Scottland was bad or Germany is really good. It's their home turf after all.

For this tournament I'm rooting for whatever team England plays against.

RagnarokRL · 27th June 2024, 00:46

There are few things in sport more enjoyable than watching Cristiano Ronaldo get humiliated. Never cheered for Georgia before but it might become a habit.

Nono · 27th June 2024, 22:54

Hungary says goodbye again. It is "great" our prime mininster loves football and they invested tons of money in it in the last 15 years. What is not great is our hospitals, saleries, etc are almost worst in EU....So fuck football...

14th June 2024, 17:46	#1
Roger Allott Registered User Addicted Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 955 Thanks: 691 Thanked 7,258 Times in 935 Posts	Euro 2024 I'm rather amazed to find that there's no thread for the Euro 2024 tournament starting tonight with Germany v Scotland. I've analysed the betting markets on Betfair and compared their implied probabilities with the pure data-driven Opta probabilities for who will win. Some differences are quite interesting, as they may hint at where there's value to be found for those wanting a flutter. The most out-of-whack results are the real minnows, as any decent statistician would predict. But Scotland are ranked 15th of the 24 partaking countries yet gamblers have been strangely 64.29% more pessimistic about their chances. Gambling on Scotland winning the tournament would probably be a bit dumb, but popping some dosh on them getting to the knockout stage or even the QFs is probably worth a punt. At the other end, Portugal and Germany have been backed by punters more than Opta thinks is prudent. So, laying a bet on them NOT winning the tournament would be best value (at the time of writing). Favourites England & France seem to be priced about right if we trust Opta, but elsewhere there seems to be value in backing Poland, Turkey, Denmark & Netherlands to succeed, or Croatia & Spain to NOT succeed. .

15th June 2024, 15:48	#3
Rocket_750 Registered User Addicted Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 307 Thanks: 918 Thanked 1,385 Times in 264 Posts	Go Germany ! I am for Germany

27th June 2024, 22:54	#6
Nono Aria Giovanni forever Beyond Redemption Join Date: Apr 2008 Location: Hungary Posts: 15,582 Thanks: 19,938 Thanked 227,249 Times in 15,005 Posts	Hungary says goodbye again. It is "great" our prime mininster loves football and they invested tons of money in it in the last 15 years. What is not great is our hospitals, saleries, etc are almost worst in EU....So fuck football... __________________ Vault Hunter, you magnificent bastard!l Who's the best doggy? Who's the best doggy? ANSWER ME! WHO'S THE BEST DOGGY?

15th June 2024, 01:27	#2
RagnarokRL Junior Member Virgin Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 14 Thanks: 10,568 Thanked 15 Times in 5 Posts	The betting on Portugal, Spain and Croatia are probably due to how good they were two, four and six years ago as opposed to now. Germany haven't been good for a while and playing at home may get them out of their group but I doubt they'll accomplish much beyond that. It wasn't German players that got Munich and Dortmund deep in the Champions League. I'm cheering for England's success and France's failure as I loathe Mbappe.

16th June 2024, 02:23	#4
dudeperfec Junior Member Virgin Join Date: Jun 2024 Posts: 12 Thanks: 71 Thanked 20 Times in 7 Posts	Idk if Scottland was bad or Germany is really good. It's their home turf after all. For this tournament I'm rooting for whatever team England plays against.

27th June 2024, 00:46	#5
RagnarokRL Junior Member Virgin Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 14 Thanks: 10,568 Thanked 15 Times in 5 Posts	There are few things in sport more enjoyable than watching Cristiano Ronaldo get humiliated. Never cheered for Georgia before but it might become a habit.